Central Asia's Uranium Revival and the Battle for Energy Security

Written by Natalie Chan (BSc Politics and Economics)

As global demand for nuclear energy surges, attention has shifted to the uranium supply chain, with countries racing to secure energy security. Central Asia, in particular Kazakhstan, is wealthy in uranium, positioning the region as a critical player in the future of nuclear power. Kazakhstan itself produces 43% of the world’s uranium supply, with the second highest producer being Canada, which produces 15% of the world’s supply.

After the Fukushima incident in 2011, demand for nuclear energy plummeted due to safety concerns. However, with the increasing push for renewable energy sources and climate action, demand is rising rapidly. At the start of 2025, prices for enriched uranium have hit $190 per separative work unit compared to the price of $56 three years ago. Additionally, the World Nuclear Association is expecting global uranium demand to double by 2040 and the US, UK and South Korea have all pledged to triple global nuclear energy supply by 2030. As the world turns to nuclear power to meet energy security and decarbonisation goals, Kazakhstan and the broader Central Asian region have emerged as key players in shaping the future of the global uranium market.

Figure 1: Uranium Price Tracker (Financial Times)

Central Asia's Soviet Legacy in Uranium Mining

Across Central Asia, the legacy of nuclear testing from the Soviet Era has left a lasting negative public perception of nuclear energy. As part of the Cold War arms race, the USSR utilised the region for above ground testing and hazardous uranium mining, causing severe environmental issues in the region. The Semiplalatinsk nuclear testing site in Kazakhstan is home to the site where the USSR tested their first atomic bomb, and it alone saw over 450 nuclear tests between 1949 and the late 1980s. The damage of these sites extends to today, where nuclear radiation exposure leads to significantly higher cancer and birth defect rates. Studies by the Kazakhstan’s Institute of Radiation Medicine and Ecology also confirmed that the elevated risk of disease persisted for two generations, affecting the children and grandchildren of those exposed. Given this history, anti-nuclear sentiment remains strong in the region, leading to denuclearization policies. However, recent energy shortages and blackouts between 2021 and 2023—caused by erratic weather, aging infrastructure, and growing demand—have reignited discussions about nuclear energy. In 2021, power outages in western Kazakhstan led to a loss of over 1,000 megawatts of electricity, highlighting the region’s urgent need for energy security.

Coal vs. Nuclear Energy Dilemma

Whilst the rest of the world seeks to decrease reliance on coal, Central Asia remains an outlier. In 2023, 60% of Central Asia’s yearly energy was generated by burning coal, with Kazakhstan sourcing around 80% of its electricity from coal. The reliance on coal poses dangerous public health effects and creates water and air pollution. Given these challenges, there is a strong incentive to adopt nuclear energy as it can provide energy security to the region by leveraging the region's uranium-rich resources.

While nuclear energy is seen as a “cleaner” type of energy, suggested policies pose a threat to Central Asia’s water security. Currently, 1 in 6 central asians live in areas with high drought risk, a problem exacerbated by poor water management dating back to large-scale irrigation projects in the Soviet era. Nearly all of the Aral Sea that Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan are dependent on for water supply has nearly disappeared and the Caspian Sea is also shrinking. With the Central Asia drought in 2021, the situation is severe. Kazakhstan plans on building a nuclear power plant on the edge of Lake Balkhash, the third largest lake in Eurasia and a vital water source. This has raised environmental concerns like decreasing water levels, increased salinity and contamination, creating further threats to the water supply. The building of the new nuclear plant will represent a payoff between energy security and water security.

A New Era for Nuclear Energy in Central Asia

Despite the pushback, 2024 was a year of advancements for nuclear energy in Central Asia. In June, the Kyrgyzstan parliament lifted the ban on uranium and thorium mining, motivated by economic incentives. In October, Kazakhstan held a referendum where 70% of voters supported the construction of a nuclear plant next to Lake Balkhash. These developments along with their wealth of natural resources give Central Asia has the potential to be a key global supplier of uranium.

Figure 2: Kazakhstan Nuclear Power Plant (Euractiv)

As global uranium demand rises, geopolitical tensions surrounding supply chains are also intensifying. The centralisation of resources in Russia and Central Asia lead to concerns for the West’s energy security with the US seeking to decrease reliance on Russia for nuclear fuel. Currently sourcing 25% of fuel from Russia, the US passed a bill banning the import of Russian uranium in December 2022. However, major nuclear power companies lobbied against the restrictions, and in 2023, the US still purchased over $1 billion in Russian nuclear fuel, a 20% increase from the previous year. Meanwhile, countries like the US, Canada, and Australia have reopened over 10 uranium mines to boost domestic production.

Russia remains a dominant force in uranium processing, controlling 44% of the world’s enrichment capacity through its state-owned conglomerate, Rosatom. This refinement process, which converts uranium into "yellowcake" for use in reactors and nuclear weapons, gives Russia significant leverage in the global energy market.

Kazakhstan's Potential as a Key Uranium Supplier

At the same time, there are fears that the supply of uranium will increasingly be in the hands of Russia and China instead of the West. In 2023, two-thirds of Kazakhstan’s uranium sales went to home, China and Russia. In comparison to 2021, when 60% of uranium was sold to the US, Canada, France and the UK, only 28% was sold in 2023. This shift is partially due to supply chain disruptions from the Russia-Ukraine war and China’s growing economic influence over the region through the Belt and Road Initiative, which has facilitated an increase in long-term supply deals.

However, Kazakhstan is also expanding trade with Europe. In a deal with Swiss energy company Axpo, Kazatomprom announced on February 17, 2025, that it had signed "the first-ever contract for the supply of Kazakh natural uranium concentrates for the energy needs of Switzerland's Beznau and Leibstadt nuclear power plants." This agreement signals Kazakhstan's growing role in global uranium markets, potentially reducing Western reliance on Russian supply chains.

The Future of Central Asia's Uranium Industry

The biggest challenge in expanding global uranium supply lies in the high cost and low profitability of nuclear fuel production. Many suppliers are hesitant to scale up production without major investment, while investors are reluctant to commit funds without guaranteed returns. Given these barriers, government support will be crucial in shaping the future of the industry.

While Central Asia’s role in the global uranium market remains uncertain, the region has the potential to reshape the nuclear energy landscape. Whether it aligns with Western energy needs or strengthens ties with Russia and China, its uranium resources will be at the center of the global energy security debate.