Trump's Victory: What Does it Mean for Ukraine?

Written by Joseph Coogan (BSc Sociology)

As Donald Trump prepares to reclaim the Oval Office on January 20th, 2025, with Project 2025 firmly in motion, the U.S. domestic policy veers sharply towards his MAGA vision, bolstered by his control over Congress and the Supreme Court. This shift raises crucial questions about the global ramifications, particularly for Eurasia amid the ongoing Ukraine-Russia conflict. Trump's previous claims of resolving the conflict "in a day" and his perceived closeness to the Kremlin paint a complex picture for Ukraine, whose future now hangs in the balance. Biden’s tenure demonstrated firm support for Ukraine, notably with a contentious $61 billion funding aid package in April 2024, which faced staunch opposition from MAGA-aligned Republicans like Marjorie Taylor Greene. This opposition has cast long shadows over the prospect of continued aid, suggesting a potentially isolationist U.S. foreign policy under Trump. As both Ukraine and Russia brace for an unpredictable tenure, the region oscillates between hope and pessimism regarding Trump's impact on peace and diplomatic negotiations. Amidst this uncertainty, experts like Mark N. Katz speculate on whether Trump's presidency will bring substantive change or merely rhetorical bluster. As the world watches, it becomes evident that Eurasia faces a more uncertain future under Trump than it might have under a Harris-led administration.

President-elect Donald Trump on stage on November 6 in West Palm Beach, Florida.

What can Kyiv expect?

As Donald Trump gears up for another term in the Oval Office, Kyiv, under President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, faces a period of profound uncertainty. Trump's campaign trail rhetoric and his approach to Ukraine have not exactly been supportive. His criticism of Zelenskyy, blaming him for the onset of the war, combined with declarations like “Ukraine’s gone” and his Vice President-elect JD Vance's indifference towards Ukraine, signal a potential shift away from the solid backing Ukraine received during the Biden era. On top of this, the recent congressional and senate results have fortified Trump's position, potentially translating his campaign rhetoric into tangible policies that could significantly affect Ukraine. This might include cutting vital funding or pushing for a demilitarised zone, a move that could impose restrictions on Ukraine's aspirations to join NATO or the EU, thus exacerbating the nation’s security dilemmas.

However, there are alternative viewpoints that suggest potential benefits for Ukraine. Some analysts speculate that if Putin escalates the conflict, Trump might increase support for Ukraine to avoid the embarrassment of a Ukrainian defeat during his term. Despite being a remote possibility, this scenario highlights Trump's desire for decisive outcomes, contrasting with what some in Kyiv perceive as Biden’s indecisiveness.

Ultimately, the path forward for Ukraine is laden with ambiguity. While the re-election of Trump might not bring the support Ukraine hoped for, it does not necessarily spell the end of assistance. Ukrainian officials remain cautiously optimistic, viewing Trump's presidency as a potential alternative to the previous administration's hesitancy. The situation remains fluid and fraught with potential shifts in U.S. policy toward Ukraine.

What does it mean for the Kremlin?

“A Trump presidency won’t necessarily be the gift Moscow thinks it is”, according to The Independent. Like Kyiv, the Kremlin is ambivalent about Trump’s re-election. While Putin has labeled Trump a “brave man,” other Russian officials, like Peskov, express caution, warning that Trump won’t resolve Ukraine’s crisis immediately. Indeed, Putin’s war rhetoric has been staunchly anti-Western, framing it as a survival battle against existential threats to Russia. Entering peace talks could diminish Putin’s stance and appear as the West overpowering a beleaguered Russia, a significant risk for the Kremlin and possibly a reason behind Putin's public commendation of Trump.

Internally, the narrative within Russia might differ from the public rhetoric. Maria Zakharova, for example, seemingly celebrated Trump's victory on Telegram by mocking a previous post by Harris. Moreover, there’s a pervasive belief among Russian elites that Trump’s leadership could further America’s decline from superpower status. This could translate into Russian pressure on Trump to broker favourable deals, such as assurances that Ukraine will not join NATO.

The future of foreign policy in this region remains uncertain with Trump's election, far murkier than it might have been under a Harris administration. While some commentators believe Trump’s victory might weaken Putin in Western eyes, others argue it could provide Russia more leeway to pursue its interests without significant U.S. opposition.

Is It All Talk?

There is a prevailing argument that President Trump's campaign rhetoric is primarily designed to energise his domestic base, with little real change anticipated in actual policy direction. Despite fears stoked by the media about the implications of Trump's re-election for the Russia-Ukraine conflict, some analysts suggest that his foreign policy may not significantly deviate from that of previous administrations. However, the power of words in foreign policy cannot be underestimated—language and tone carry significant weight.

Trump's bombastic style, regardless of policy shifts, presents its own set of risks. Offensive remarks could provoke direct retaliation from foreign states. Indirectly, continued dismissive comments about Ukraine, like Trump's assertion that “Ukraine’s gone,” could demoralise Ukrainians, potentially altering the nation's psychological landscape and posing subtle yet serious risks to its future stability.

While experts, like Mark N. Katz, note that Trump’s policy directions may not radically change, the unpredictable nature of his public statements alone could endanger Ukraine's future. Trump's use of simplistic, detail-lacking rhetoric, such as his baseless promise to end the war in 24 hours, not only serves his political strategy to mobilise support but also underscores a lack of reliability in his commitments.

Ultimately, the uncertainty Trump introduces—whether through direct or indirect channels—limits the sense of security Ukraine can reasonably feel. His rhetorical approach, regardless of the actual policy, represents a potential threat to both the immediate and long-term stability of the region.

What does this mean for Europe?

The re-election of Donald Trump casts a long shadow of uncertainty over Europe, particularly the continent's eastern regions. Natz points out that European policymakers face a critical need to bolster defense spending and "intensify preparations for an independent European response" in light of potential U.S. isolationism. The ambiguity surrounding Trump's foreign policy approach—whether he will maintain support for Ukraine or pivot towards isolationism—leaves Europe in a precarious position, necessitating proactive measures.

Moreover, Trump's unpredictable rhetoric could incite retaliations or encourage Russian aggression, adding further instability to the already tense geopolitical landscape. The looming prospect of Trump’s second term injects additional uncertainty, compelling European nations to consider independent strategies in response to potential shifts in U.S. policy.

Conclusion

The overarching reality of Trump’s second term is its inherent unpredictability for the Eurasian region. It remains uncertain how Trump’s declarations will translate into concrete actions—whether he will cut Ukrainian support, continue to foster relationships with powerful figures in Moscow, or withdraw from NATO. This unpredictability mandates that Europe prepare for an autonomous stance towards Russia and reinforce its support for Ukraine.

While Katz suggests that Trump’s policies might not diverge significantly from past administrations, the potential impact of his rhetoric—a distinct shift in tone and language from the White House—cannot be ignored. Rhetoric alone can directly and indirectly influence security dynamics, affect Ukraine’s strategic outlook, and possibly embolden Russia.

In summary, Trump’s presidency introduces significant risks and uncertainties for Ukraine and its European neighbours. These nations must brace for the possibility of a more isolated and confrontational U.S. administration, as the next four years on Pennsylvania Avenue remain a wildcard, full of unpredictable implications for international relations and European security.